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“Luck” might be too simplistic to describe what I’m discussi Discount NFL Jerseys China, ng. Some elements of the game are truly random and uncontrollable, like fumble recoveries or the success of opposing kickers. Others are subject to massive amounts of variance because they’re in small samples, like how a team performs on fourth down. From looking at the history of the NFL, we can get a sense of whether some elements of a team’s performance are unsustainable and what that means for their future.
We saw an example of how variance can impact things Monday night. The Commanders played an excellent game against the Eagles and deserved to win, but they got some help along the way. Before that game, the Eagles had fumbled seven times on offense and recovered six of them. We know that offenses typically recover roughly 57% of their fumbles from year-to-year and that there’s no track record for teams recovering a significant percentage of their fumbles season after season.
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