Moneyball Makes the 2018 Draft Tricky to Predict

Quarterbacks are the most important players in football. This draft has a bunch of them, and flawed though each of the prospects may be, the best ones will all be selected near the top of the draft board.

So far, so good.nfl custom jerseys cheap

Cornerbacks, edge-rushers and offensive tackles rank next on the Moneyball leverage/marginal value scale. This year’s cornerback crop is solid enough, but both the edge-rusher and offensive tackle classes are thinner than phyllo dough.

Running backs, guards, off-ball linebackers and safeties rank at the bottom of the marginal value scale. As mentioned, cheap custom nfl jerseys running back talent is plentiful, while the difference between average, great and all-time great players at the other positions is less visible in the win-loss column than the difference between an average quarterback and a Tom Brady.

But this year’s class is overflowing with talent at those low-leverage positions. We’ve covered the running backs. Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson is one of the best guard prospects ever, and there is depth behind him. Georgia’s Roquan Smith leads a tremendous linebacker class. Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick spearhead a strong safety/nickelback class.cheap customized nfl jerseys

Teams that follow the Moneyball “rules” will avoid the top players on the guard/running back/etc. draft lists, even if that forces them to reach or gamble on a second-tier edge-rusher or left tackle.

But teams that follow the underlying principles of analytics will seek the best values. That may mean gobbling up the guards,cheap nfl custom jerseys  running backs and linebackers who slip through the cracks (Barkley and Nelson won’t be overlooked for long, but Derrius Guice, Will Hernandez and others might), even if that means taking a low-leverage player higher than they are “supposed to.”

It makes draft prognostication tricky. It’s also a reminder that Moneyball isn’t a template laid out in a Brad Pitt movie. It’s an nike nfl jerseys cheap approach to team-building and a method for solving problems. Different teams can use the same methods and approaches to arrive at very different conclusions.

The Eagles, after all, are as committed to analytics as the Browns are. They traded up for Carson Wentz when the Browns were trading down to collect picks. nfl jerseys cheap nike

We’ll learn more about how analytics are shaping the market after the draft. Until then, we’ll use the numbers to make the best possible projections. Because that’s what teams do.